ADR-0020: Geographic rollout Y1 = KZ national from Almaty, late-Y1 KG soft from Bishkek

• Status: Accepted
• Deciders: Jean
• Date: 2026-05-02
• Supersedes: Implicit Y2 CIS+Türkey assumption in 2026-05-01-realistic-financial-recalibration.md §4
• Related SOT slice: Layer 2 → Geographic scope (new entry v1.3)

Context

Recalibration baseline 2026-05-01 modeled Y2 revenue ₸550M assuming “CIS partial entry + Türkey soft-launch” beginning Y2. Jean clarified during continuation session 2026-05-02 that actual rollout plan is more conservative: Y1 = Kazakhstan only, with national rollout anchored from Almaty (Almaty as launch hub, then expanding to other KZ cities — Astana, Shymkent, Karaganda, Aktobe, etc.). Late-Y1 → Y2H1 = soft expansion to Kyrgyzstan anchored from Bishkek (KG capital, 4 hours by road from Almaty, KG kids already consume KZ TV + YouTube content, Russian as lingua franca). CIS broader (Russia conditional, Belarus, Armenia, Moldova) and Türkic broader (Türkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan) shift from Y2 → Y3+.

This corrects an over-aggressive geographic assumption that would not hold in defense before partners or investors.

Decision

Y1 (calendar 2026): Kazakhstan national rollout only, anchored from Almaty as launch hub. Game launch 1 August 2026 KZ-only on Apple App Store / Google Play KZ regions. Cartoon airs Балапан + TV+ KZ-national.

Y1H2 → Y2H1 (Q4 2026 → Q2 2027): soft expansion to Kyrgyzstan, anchored from Bishkek as KG entry point. No localization investment beyond Russian (already core launch language).

Y3+ (2028+): broader CIS expansion (Russia conditional with geopolitical note, Belarus, Armenia, Moldova) + Türkic broader (Türkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan).

What we explicitly are NOT doing:

• No multi-country Y1 launch
• No Türkey or Azerbaijan launch Y2
• No Russia launch as base case Y2 (it sits Y3+ with conditional flag)

Revenue trajectory revised:

Year	Revenue ₸M	Geographic scope
Y1	86	KZ national
Y2	350-450 (mid 400)	KZ deepened + KG soft from Bishkek
Y3	1 400-1 800 (mid 1 600)	CIS partial entry (RU lang already shipping) + Türkic lab
Y4	3 200-3 800 (mid 3 500)	CIS mature, Türkey/Azerbaijan soft-launch
Y5	5 500-6 500 (mid 6 000)	Türkic regional expansion
Y6	8 500-9 500 (mid 9 000)	Türkic mature, Russia conditional 50% capture
Y7	12 000-13 500 (mid 12 700)	Mediafranchise platform Y3 cross-IP, full base

Cumulative Y7 ~₸21-24B (vs recalibration ₸25.4B, within 10%).

Consequences

• Plus: Each milestone more credible — concentrated KZ-only Y1 = focused execution, defensible numbers, no localization debt. Investor narrative strengthens because “KZ-then-KG” is a well-defined transition vs ambiguous “CIS partial”.
• Plus: Pre-Seed funding need contracts because Y2 ramp lighter (no Türkic localization spend yet, lower marketing budget).
• Plus: Cartoon distribution simplifies — Балапан + TV+ KZ-national are sufficient Y1 channels, no additional broadcaster deals needed.
• Minus: Y2 revenue ceiling lower than aspirational (₸400M vs ₸550M recalibration).
• Minus: Türkic + CIS competitors can move into the gap during Y2 (e.g. local KZ studios attempting similar). Mitigation: deep KZ-national moat (cartoon + game + AI tutor + AI-pin pilot all Y1) raises switching cost for any competitor entering Y2.
• Следующие шаги: Update Investor BP / Pitch Deck / Landing / CPs to reflect KZ-from-Almaty + KG-from-Bishkek geography; revise Y2-Y7 revenue projections in financial model; remove Türkey + Azerbaijan from Y2 marketing plan; concentrate cartoon dub budget on RU + KZ + EN only Y1-Y2 (no Türkçe / Azerbaijani Y1).

Alternatives considered

• Multi-country Y1 launch (KZ + KG + UZ simultaneous): rejected — pre-MVP without traction can’t sustain marketing across 3 markets, dilutes execution focus.
• CIS Y2 broader (Russia + Belarus included): rejected — Russia geopolitical-conditional only, not base case; Belarus market too small to justify localization spend Y2.
• Türkey Y2 (large kids market, secular government, IP-friendly): rejected — Türkçe localization requires substantial dub + cultural-adaptation investment not justified at Y2 scale; defer to Y3-Y4 when revenue can fund proper Türkey launch.
• KZ-only Y1+Y2 (no KG soft): rejected as too narrow — KG Bishkek is “free expansion” via Russian language + cultural proximity, no incremental localization cost.

Related

• SOT: SOURCE_OF_TRUTH.md §Layer 2 Geographic scope (v1.3 entry)
• ADRs: ADR-0013 (mediafranchise vision — CIS+Türkic ~55M kids 2-10 still long-term TAM), ADR-0019 (realistic financial baseline)
• Specs: docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-02-canon-corrections-jean-direction.md §C1
• Financial model: revised Y1-Y7 trajectory in §C1 of canon-corrections spec