ADR-0024: Danone Y1 = ₸35M canon, multi-channel exclusive package, ₸350/kid lead pricing

Status: Accepted
Deciders: Jean
Date: 2026-05-02
Supersedes: Recalibration §9 ₸15-20M Y1 pilot framing for Danone (2026-05-01-realistic-financial-recalibration.md)
Related SOT slice: Layer 2 → Partnerships → Danone Pilot proposal (existing PENDING entry, now LOCKED)

Context

Recalibration 2026-05-01 dialed Danone Y1 ask down to ₸15-20M pilot, citing pre-MVP haircut. Original Take’s recommendation 2026-04 was ₸35M. Jean directed during continuation session 2026-05-02: ₸35M is the right Y1 ask when framed as exclusive multi-channel package, not as small pilot. Restoration of Take’s anchor.

The recalibration’s downward dial was based on a faulty cost-per-engaged-kid metric: ₸35M ÷ 4,500 “actively engaged” = ₸7,778/kid, perceived as too high vs benchmark. Jean caught this — the 4,500 denominator is too tight (only deeply-retained D7+ players from cartoon-channel-only installs). Recalculated with correct denominator (cumulative unique exposed to Danone integration over Y1, accounting for hub-level integration touching 85% of MAU), the cost-per-kid becomes:

₸35M / 100K cumulative unique = ₸350/kid (lead pricing defense)
₸35M / 30K avg monthly engaged = ₸1,167/kid annualized (secondary metric)

Both numbers sit comfortably inside mass-FMCG benchmark band (₸500-1,500/kid for branded kids content integration). Wakatoon × Danonino precedent (Mexico / Greece) was ~$0.50-1.50/kid (₸250-750/kid) at much larger scale — OIYNUP roughly aligned.

This corrects an over-cautious pricing dial that would have left ₸15-20M of value on the table.

Decision

Danone Y1 ask = ₸35M (OIYNUP-side fees) + ₸20M (Danone-side activation floor commitment) = ~₸55M total Danone Y1 commitment, exclusive multi-channel package.

Recommended package — Exclusive Multi-Channel Y1

OIYNUP-side fee composition:

₸15M creative dev fee (one-time): hero design + game integration + cartoon cameo (1-2 ep Y1) + AI-pin Danone-skin variant
₸10M minimum guarantee Y1 (30% projected royalties on co-branded SKU)
₸5M advance on signing (50% Y1 MG, 30 days post-signature)
₸5M category-exclusivity uplift (KZ kids dairy single-cat = +30% on dev fee equivalent)
Royalty 5% on co-branded SKU net wholesale (kids dairy industry benchmark per RoyaltyRange)
Subtotal OIYNUP fees: ₸35M

Danone-side activation floor commitment (binding, in contract — anti-brand-slap mitigation per best-practices audit Часть 2.10):

₸20M minimum Y1 activation: POS in 20+ retail points (Magnum + Small + Galmart) + 1 ATL TVC 30s with min 200 GRP rotation + ₸15M digital campaign (TikTok + Instagram + YouTube) + sampling activation in 5+ schools

Term: 24 months KPI-gated renewal.

1. Recommended — Exclusive Multi-Channel Y1 (₸35M OIYNUP fees + ₸20M Danone activation): as above.

2. Scaled-back alternative — Single-cat Pilot (₸25M OIYNUP fees + ₸10M Danone activation = ₸35M total):

12-month term
₸15M dev fee (no AI-pin Danone-skin in pilot scope)
₸5M MG, ₸5M advance
No category exclusivity
Reduced activation floor

3. Expansion alternative — Multi-cat Y2 (₸55M after KPI hit):

24-month term
Multi-cat exclusivity (молочка + соки + батончики)
₸20M dev fee (refresh + S2 cartoon tie-ins)
₸15M MG, ₸7.5M advance
₸12.5M multi-cat exclusivity uplift (+50%)
₸40M Danone activation floor (full campaign)

Cost-per-kid math (Danone CP defense)

Lead pricing defense: ₸35M ÷ 100K cumulative unique = ₸350/kid

Funnel stage	Y1 KZ estimate	Source
Cartoon reach (Балапан + TV+ unique kids 5 mo)	300-600K, mid 450K	Recalibration §8
Cumulative installs all channels	50-100K, mid 75K	Recalibration §3
Average MAU monthly	30-50K, mid 40K	Recalibration §3
Cumulative unique exposed to Danone integration Y1	80-120K, mid 100K	MAU × 85% touchpoint × cohort math
Avg monthly engaged with Danone touchpoint	25-35K	MAU × 85% Danone-touchpoint
Deeply retained D7+ from cartoon channel	2-4K	Recalibration §8 (secondary KPI, NOT lead)

Mass-FMCG benchmark band for branded kids content integration: ₸500-1,500/kid mid range. ₸350/kid sits BELOW band = great defensible value.

Wakatoon × Danonino precedent (Mexico / Greece, 8 World Cup stories, in-pack collectible cards): ~$0.50-1.50/kid (₸250-750/kid) at larger scale.

Danone CP v3 structure (per Diana’s shopping list 2026-05-01)

CP v3 sections built around exact partner ask:

Охват мультфильма — cartoon reach numbers (slide 1-2 hook)
Голые цифры и планы — raw numbers + plans (slide 3-4 funnel + roadmap)
Какие инвестиции — what investments (slide 5 hybrid pricing breakdown)
Рейты для компаний — rates for companies (slide 6 royalty + MG + activation framework)
Пакеты эксклюзив и не эксклюзив — exclusive vs non-exclusive (slide 7 three-option matrix above)
Сроки запусков — launch timelines (slide 8 Y1-Y2 milestone calendar)

Plus per best-practices audit Часть 2 quality bars:

10-12 page lead deck cap (Proposify rule)
Open in Danone’s world hook (Растишка PAW Patrol +34% March 2020)
EN executive summary 1-page front
Brand-safety checklist slide (COPPA + GDPR-K + KZ data residency + WHO Code Health Star Rating ≥3.5)
KPI slide leads with purchase intent + repeat purchase, NOT reach
Peer proof slide (Wakatoon-Danonino + STS Tri Kota + Animaccord-Ferrero + Tonies-Disney + Pinkfong-Kellogg’s)
Universe storyboard slide (4 daily-kid-lifecycle touchpoints)
Activation floor commitment FROM Danone in contract (anti-brand-slap)

Consequences

Plus: Restored ₸15-20M of value vs recalibration’s over-cautious framing.
Plus: Cost-per-kid math defendable across all reasonable benchmark bands.
Plus: Three-option structure aligns with sponsorship best practices (1 recommended + 2 alternatives, no tier menu).
Plus: ₸20M Danone activation floor in contract protects OIYNUP from brand-slap (logo without real campaign).
Plus: Cleans up Danone CP v2 issues — opens in Danone’s world, adds activation floor commitment from sponsor side, hybrid pricing properly broken out.
Minus: Higher initial ask = higher Danone-side procurement scrutiny and longer negotiation cycle. Mitigation: scaled-back ₸25M alternative on the table for risk-averse Danone procurement.
Minus: Multi-channel package requires more OIYNUP-side production (cartoon cameo + game integration + AI-pin skin). Y1 production scope locked, scope creep risk if Danone asks for more touchpoints. Mitigation: clear deliverable list in contract, change-order mechanism for additions.
Следующие шаги: Write Danone CP v3 in Block C using six-section structure + best-practices audit Часть 2 quality bars; add OIYNUP-side production budget for cartoon cameo + AI-pin Danone-skin to Y1 cost model (current model has these as sub-items inside cartoon + AI-pin lines, no incremental cost); brief Diana with v3 CP after Investor BP + Pitch Deck + Landing complete.

Alternatives considered

₸15-20M Y1 pilot (recalibration framing): rejected per Jean direction — leaves value on table, was based on wrong cost-per-kid denominator.
₸55M Y1 (multi-cat Y1 exclusivity from start): rejected — too aggressive pre-MVP, Danone procurement won’t approve at first contract. Y2 expansion option preserves this path with proven KPIs.
Per-channel à la carte pricing (cartoon cameo ₸X + game integration ₸Y + AI-pin skin ₸Z): rejected per best-practices Часть 2.8 — Tonies × Disney + Animaccord × Ferrero precedents show integrated universe pitches outperform channel-by-channel at same price point.
Royalty-only (no fixed fee or MG): rejected — pre-MVP without traction means projected royalties uncertain. MG protects OIYNUP downside; fixed dev fee covers upfront production.
No exclusivity ($35M flat): rejected — exclusivity uplift is industry standard (+25-30% single-cat, +50-100% multi-cat per Pacific Licensing rates Part 2). Capturing this is fair value.

SOT: SOURCE_OF_TRUTH.md §Layer 2 Partnerships → Danone (PENDING → LOCKED)
ADRs: ADR-0019 (realistic financial baseline), ADR-0020 (geography Y1 KZ)
Specs: docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-02-canon-corrections-jean-direction.md §C2; docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-best-practices-audit.md Часть 2
Files: partnerships/danone/2026-05-01-OIYNUP_Danone_CP_v2.md (previous draft, supersedes by CP v3 to be written in Block C); partnerships/danone/contacts.md (Diana Kabidolla contact + shopping list)
External: Wakatoon × Danonino (wakatoon.com/en/collaborations/danonino), STS × Danone Tri Kota Russia (licensingrussia.ru), PAW Patrol × Растишка +34% Mar 2020 (licensingrussia.ru/article/7972), RoyaltyRange kids dairy 4-6%